Trading Places

I grew up on the west coast, and for a long time I thought domestic (and particularly local/regional) politics was rather dull. I studied international politics in college, and never paid much attention to the local scene.

Then I moved to central Virginia.

I live in Charlottesville, which is part of Virginia’s 5th congressional district - home to one of the most hotly contested races in the nation this year. As I write this, the incumbent is behind by 648 votes and is preparing to contest the results.

Here’s how it went down:

The Incumbent

In one corner is Virgil Goode, the Republican (nee Democratic) incumbent whose pet issue is immigration reform. But he really made a name for himself in the bitter debate over the Iraq War supplemental spending bill. You see, Goode “[fears] that radical Muslims who want to control the Middle East and ultimately the world would love to see ‘In God We Trust’ stricken from our money and replaced with ‘In Mohammad We Trust.’” [source]

Setting aside his theological confusion (surely he means “Allah” - the Arabic word for “God”), does he have a point? I don’t particularly think so, but maybe you disagree (see the following section for another perspective on the issue).

Here’s another gem from Goode:

The Muslim Representative from Minnesota [Keith Ellison] was elected by the voters of that district and if American citizens don’t wake up and adopt the Virgil Goode position on immigration there will likely be many more Muslims elected to office and demanding the use of the Koran[...] I fear that in the next century we will have many more Muslims in the United States if we do not adopt the strict immigration policies that I believe are necessary to preserve the values and beliefs traditional to the United States of America and to prevent our resources from being swamped. [source]

Ahh, the values and beliefs traditional to America. As to that, now:

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances. [source]

There’s also that little thing about all men being created equal, but let’s not get bogged down in the details, eh Mr. Goode?

The Challenger

Goode’s challenger, after more than a decade in office without a close contest, is one Tom Perriello. A veteran of international human rights work in places like Sierra Leone and Liberia, Perriello is a religious progressive (like my buddy Paul) running on a platform of local economic revitalization and national re-commitment to principles of social justice. He points to a pervasive culture of greed and self-gratification as the cause for many of America’s economic and national security problems.

Perriello has written thoughtfully throughout the campaign, showing a sophisticated and nuanced understanding of domestic and international politics, faith, and ethics (elitist!). From one of the articles linked below:

Tax kickbacks to the wealthy and defaulting on pension breach America’s traditional values of economic fairness and opportunity. But we must look beyond the individual issues or even the promise of better material conditions. The most popular line of 20th century politics remains President Kennedy’s call to service. I don’t believe that we will win the argument for economic fairness just by telling working and middle class people what we deserve (though we do). We will win it by winning the underlying moral argument that a culture of the common good is morally superior to a culture of selfishness in our politicians, our corporations and our communities.

In addition to penning some very well considered articles outlining his views (one, two, three, four), Perriello is very open and responsive to a robust dialogue with his prospective constituents (here’s that quote you were supposed to watch out for):

3. Agree or disagree with the following statement: I fear that radical Muslims who want to control the Middle East and ultimately the world would love to see ‘In God We Trust’ stricken from our money and replaced with ‘In Mohammad We Trust.’”

I believe that this sort of statement represents a fundamental misunderstanding of our enemy. The threat of Islamic extremism is very real, but we will not be able to adequately confront it with this sort of simplistic attitude. We must confront terrorists both militarily and politically, and no one who is in Washington right now seems to have figured that out. Not only was the Iraq war a foolish and costly mistake, but it distracted us from actually dealing with radical Islam, and strengthened Iran’s position. Having served as a national security analyst in places like Afghanistan, I am sick and tired of seeing politicians who are more interested in giving speeches like this than in actually fixing the problem. I intend to confront Islamic extremism in a way that weakens, rather than empowers, our enemies.

There’s plenty of other good stuff in there, too. I encourage you to read it.

The Race

Goode came into this race having won handily in every re-election bid to date. It seemed clear from the start that he wasn’t taking Perriello seriously - he canceled debates, flatly refused to answer questions, and generally blew the dialog off. As the polls tightened substantially in the weeks running up to the election, Goode seemed to realize he was in trouble and began running attack ads depicting Perriello (a central Virginia native and resident) as a “New York lawyer” of all things. Meanwhile, Perriello ran ads like this and this.

Election day was exciting. The lead went back and forth over the course of the evening. A late-night tabulation error sent Perriello to bed with a fairly strong lead, but in the morning the revised total put him ahead by just 31 votes. In the days since, the lead has bloomed to 648 votes (0.2 percent of the total) and the Democratic Party of Virginia is declaring (premature) victory. Meanwhile, Goode is preparing to disqualify provisional ballots (staffer quote: “Think like a bad guy”) and request a recount.

Success, Justified

In my mind, Perriello succeeded for many of the same reasons as Barack Obama:

1. Relevant, change-oriented rhetoric: Perriello’s rhetoric focuses strongly on “changing the culture” of Washington, and on high-minded ideals like service and the common good. This is hardly unique or unprecedented, but he delivers it in such an earnest way that one truly believes him. If Obama proved anything, it’s that this sort of rhetoric can work famously if deployed convincingly. It also doesn’t hurt that his top priority is economic revitalization, given the current economic climate. Meanwhile, Goode came off as petty and mean-spirited (at least to me), while avoiding any substantive policy discussion as much as possible.
2. People power: Perriello’s campaign showed extremely strong organization and motivation on the part of staffers, volunteers, and voters. He broke fundraising records for the district. He seemed genuinely interested in a thoughtful dialog with his constituents, and with others (witness the lengthy exchanges in the comment threads of his TPM Cafe posts above).
3. The Internet: Like most progressives, Perriello enjoys strong support among younger voters (typically concentrated here in Charlottesville) who are Internet-savvy. He uses Twitter, YouTube, and influential local blogs to engage this audience on its own terms. Remind you of anyone? His ability to galvanize this sizable college-town voting bloc will surely be the difference-maker if he does indeed prevail.

Perriello also enjoyed a nice boost from a couple of outside factors. Virginia’s status as a battleground state (and Obama’s success here) surely contributed in no small way. In particular, the strong Democratic ground game in Albemarle (of which Perriello’s faction was a significant part) contributed, as did the attention of the Democratic “Red to Blue” program that understood the opportunity this race presented and poured resources into the 5th district. Perriello also likely enjoyed a boost from popular former Governor and current Senator-elect Mark Warner.

Big-picture Significance

A Perriello win would be one of many important indicators of a recent sea-change in Virginia’s politics and the politics of the nation. Perriello would tip the advantage in the state’s Congressional delegation in favor of the Democratic party. Virginia has been a very red state in the past, and though the Democrats have made important inroads in recent years, wins by Obama, Warner, and Perriello color the state distinctly blue.

Much more importantly, wins by these sorts of politicians signal Virginia’s interest in the politics of hope and rejection of the politics of fear. This is a fragile time in Virginian politics. In the face of the challenges that we as a state and as a country will surely face in the coming months and years, it will be easy to return to fear. Here’s hoping that Perriello and others like him can make use of this opportunity by truly bringing the change in rhetoric, attitude, and worldview that they promise.